A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
